As we will discuss in History 341, one of the assumptions of the Western world since the industrial revolution is that economic growth will continue forever. Robert Gordon, an economist at Northwestern university recently wrote a paper challenging that idea. While you don't have to read it all, one of his main points was to wonder if this kind of economic growth may be extraordinary in history, and in fact coming to an end in the United States. (That is something that a President or a presidential candidate is not allowed to say.) He also put the new technologies that we get so excited about in context. He makes a distinction between three Industrial Revolutions, with Industrial Revolution #1 being the industrial revolution of the steam engine and the factory, Industrial Revolution #2 being the industrial revolution of electricity, the internal combustion engine, and running water, while Industrial Revolution # 3 was the industrial revolution of computing and information technology. He asks us to put our money where our mouths are in thinking about such technologies as the IPhone, the IPad, etc. when he conducts the following thought experiment:
A thought experiment helps to illustrate the fundamental importance of the inventions of IR #2 compared to the subset of IR #3 inventions that have occurred since 2002. You are required to make a choice between option A and option B. With option A you are allowed to keep 2002 electronic technology, including your Windows 98 laptop accessing Amazon, and you can keep running water and indoor toilets; but you can’t use anything invented since 2002.
Option B is that you get everything invented in the past decade right up to Facebook, Twitter, and the iPad, but you have to give up running water and indoor toilets. You have to haul the water into your dwelling and carry out the waste. Even at 3am on a rainy night, your only toilet option is a wet and perhaps muddy walk to the outhouse. Which option do you choose?
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